A recent report on Lagos’ housing market reveals that over 84% of the city’s coastline has
receded in the past 50 years, driven by unchecked coastal erosion, rising sea levels, and
human activities.
The report underscores the growing climate-related threats facing Lagos, including sea-level rise, heavier rainfall, and frequent flooding.
It points to the city’s low-lying coastline, rapid urbanization, and inadequate drainage
systems as key factors worsening these challenges.
With an average coastline erosion rate of 2.64 meters annually, the situation is expected to
worsen, as sea levels along Nigeria’s coast are projected to rise by 0.3 meters by 2030.
Local experts warn that sea levels along the Lagos coastline could rise by up to 3 meters,
endangering infrastructure, agriculture, and businesses, especially given the state’s flat
terrain, which lies just 5 meters above sea level.
The report also highlights increasingly erratic and intense rainfall across Lagos, with major
areas like Ikeja, Badagry, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, and Epe facing heightened risks of severe
flooding and more frequent flash floods.
Lagos’ inadequate drainage infrastructure may struggle to handle intense rainfall, increasing the risk of widespread flooding. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, flooding affected over 175,000 residents and caused property damage estimated at more than $262,500.
The most recent major flooding occurred in 2024 during a 10-hour downpour, leading to
widespread inundation, displacement of residents, and significant property damage,
especially in Lekki, Ikoyi, and Ajah.
The report cautions that climate-related economic losses could be severe, potentially
shrinking Lagos’ GDP by 6–30% by 2050. Nearly 7,000 infrastructure assets are at risk, with about 6,500 highly vulnerable valued at approximately $17.4 billion.
Lagos’ tourism, leisure, and entertainment sectors contributing an estimated 5–6% to the
state’s GDP are under serious threat from coastal erosion and rising sea levels.
Rapid population growth, now exceeding 24 million, has fueled unplanned urban expansion
into floodplains, wetlands, and grasslands, leading to widespread deforestation and
increased surface runoff.
Wetlands, which are crucial for controlling floods, have been heavily degraded and
reclaimed. As the report notes, “Expanding urban development has led to the loss and
reclamation of these vital ecosystems, significantly reducing their ability to manage
floodwaters.”
The report also emphasizes the significant impact of pollution especially from solid waste on Lagos’s flooding problems, noting that the waste sector contributes 25.3% of the state’s total emissions.
