Ayo Ibaru, Director of Research and Chief Investment Officer at Panterra Real Estate Group, has forecast that Nigeria’s real estate sector will experience uneven growth in 2026, driven by political uncertainty ahead of elections and varying dynamics across submarkets. He shared these insights during the 2026 Nigeria Construction & Real Estate Market Outlook, held under the theme “Infrastructure Development: A Catalyst for Real Estate, Construction & Economic Growth”, organised by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Nigeria Group in partnership with the Nigerian Institution of Surveyors and the Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors.
Ibaru noted that the market is likely to see selective growth, with some areas benefitting from infrastructure expansion and technological integration, while others may slow down due to cautious investor sentiment. “Historically, pre-election periods in Nigeria, including 2011, 2015, and 2019, show that investors tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, slowing transaction volumes and delaying commitments,” he said. He added that while certain submarkets may record temporary spikes in activity, much of the sector will remain conservative until political clarity is achieved.
He also highlighted macroeconomic factors shaping market performance. Strengthening of the naira, controlled inflation, and stable foreign exchange rates could create safer, more predictable investment conditions, whereas increased foreign attention in emerging markets, particularly from the United States, may shift capital toward liquid, lower-risk opportunities. “Investment decisions will be cautious, focusing on safe returns while avoiding speculative risks,” he explained.
Ibaru explained that pre-election periods often affect long-term government-dependent projects, with concerns over potential policy reversals delaying implementation. However, segments like warehousing and industrial spaces are expected to remain resilient, supported by consistent demand and urban expansion. He noted that short-term election-related spending may temporarily boost commercial rentals and construction activity, but such effects are unlikely to drive sustained growth.
Land markets are projected to continue appreciating, particularly in urban areas with high scarcity. Ibaru observed that the Southwest region is expected to dominate transaction values, thanks to active economic dynamics despite regulatory and title risks. In Abuja, land prices are anticipated to reflect government employment cycles and diplomatic activity, while Port Harcourt may see steadier growth as local political tensions ease.
Overall, Ibaru’s outlook suggests a real estate market in 2026 defined by regional disparities, cautious investment, and sector-specific opportunities. While political uncertainties and pre-election hesitancy may slow broad market expansion, infrastructure development, urbanisation trends, and strategic investor interest are likely to support targeted growth in key segments such as land, warehousing, and commercial property. Investors are advised to focus on submarkets with resilient demand and long-term potential, balancing short-term risks with infrastructure-led opportunities across the country.
This positions Nigeria’s real estate landscape as one where careful planning, regional insight, and selective investment will be essential for navigating the uneven growth expected in the coming year.
