The United States has slashed its imports of Nigerian goods by more than 40 per cent within a single month, underscoring the fragility of Nigeria’s trade ties with one of its most important partners. Fresh data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that Nigerian exports to the US fell sharply from $639 million in June 2025 to $379 million in July,a steep 41 per cent drop.
The downturn was mirrored by a decline in US exports to Nigeria, which fell from $919 million in June to $584 million in July. Despite this, Washington still maintained a trade surplus of $206 million in July, compared with $280 million in the previous month. Between January and July 2025, America exported goods worth $3.92 billion to Nigeria, while imports stood at $3.14 billion, leaving the US with a cumulative surplus of $781 million. July’s sharp contraction, however, highlights Nigeria’s weakening surplus position and diminishing access to the American market.
Across Africa, trade flows presented a more complex picture. US imports from the continent rose from $3.67 billion in June to $4.47 billion in July, even as exports slipped slightly to $3.30 billion. This shift left Washington with a $1.17 billion trade deficit for July, a stark contrast to the $302 million deficit recorded a month earlier. Year-to-date, US exports to Africa total $22.98 billion, while imports stand at $27.84 billion, creating a net deficit of $4.86 billion.
A closer look at country-specific trade shows mixed fortunes. The US maintained a surplus with Egypt, exporting $847 million against $290 million in imports for July. However, trade with South Africa widened America’s deficit, with imports hitting $1.99 billion against exports of just $565 million. Cumulatively, the US deficit with South Africa has grown to $7.74 billion. Algeria and other smaller African economies also deepened America’s trade gap.
Nigeria’s sharp decline in exports comes amid renewed US trade measures under President Donald Trump. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Nigerian goods from 14 to 15 per cent under his “reciprocal” tariff policy targeting countries that run surpluses with the US. While crude oil,Nigeria’s dominant export,has been partially exempted, uncertainty over tariff enforcement has dampened demand, especially for non-oil goods now directly hit by higher duties.
For Washington, the move aligns with a broader strategy to protect domestic industries and reduce trade imbalances. For Nigeria, however, the immediate effect is reduced access to a key market and erosion of its once-stable trade surplus. Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, stressed that Nigeria would not retaliate but would remain focused on reforms and diversification. She highlighted growing non-oil exports, which rose 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, and pointed to opportunities through AfCFTA and partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Analysts argue that the setback could prove beneficial if Nigeria uses it to accelerate diversification. Economist Dr Aliyu Ilias said Nigeria should view the situation as an opportunity to adapt, especially as other countries like India and China also face US tariffs. Dr Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise added that while tariffs pose challenges, the bigger obstacle to trade lies in US visa restrictions, which limit business exchanges and investment flows.
While July’s figures expose Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks, experts agree the disruption could catalyse long-term reforms. With diversification efforts, AfCFTA integration, and expanded global partnerships, Nigeria has a chance to reshape its trade model into one that is more resilient and less dependent on the US.
