Nigeria’s domestic refining industry says it is now positioned to outpace fuel imports, arguing that local plants have enough installed capacity to meet national petrol demand if long-standing supply and regulatory challenges are addressed.
Industry operators under the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) say the country could significantly cut, or even eliminate, petrol imports as early as 2026. They insist that refineries within the country, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, are capable of supplying the domestic market without reliance on foreign products.
Figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that petrol imports still dominated Nigeria’s fuel supply in 2025. The regulator reported that total national petrol consumption for the year stood at about 18.97 billion litres, with imported products accounting for nearly two-thirds of that volume. Oil marketing companies brought in approximately 11.85 billion litres, while local refineries supplied just over 7.5 billion litres.
Despite the start of large-scale refining operations at the Dangote facility and increased output from modular refineries, the industry says production remains constrained. CORAN attributes the gap between capacity and actual output to limited access to crude oil rather than operational inefficiencies.
According to the association’s spokesperson, Eche Idoko, many refineries are operating far below their designed capacity because crude feedstock is either unavailable or inconsistent. He noted that some modular refineries produce only a fraction of their potential output, while others are forced to shut down for extended periods due to supply disruptions.
Idoko said the Dangote refinery, which has the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude per day, has at times operated at around 60 per cent utilisation. He added that other facilities, including Aradel, Waltersmith and Edo refinery, continue to source crude externally, further limiting their ability to scale production.
The CORAN spokesman expressed confidence that the situation could change rapidly if crude supply challenges are resolved. He explained that Nigeria’s peak petrol demand averages about 54 million litres per day, while the Dangote refinery alone is currently producing close to 50 million litres daily. Increased output from modular refineries, he said, would easily bridge the remaining gap.
Beyond crude availability, refiners are also seeking financial and policy support. Idoko noted that many refinery projects have struggled to secure funding from local financial institutions, leading to delays in expansion plans. He urged the Federal Government to establish a refinery development fund similar to existing incentives in the gas sector, which he said had helped stimulate investment.
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery continues to expand its distribution capacity. The facility recently introduced night-time loading operations to sustain nationwide supply above 50 million litres per day. Company sources said the refinery currently has sufficient stock to meet domestic demand while still exporting to international markets.
Industry stakeholders maintain that with coordinated regulatory support, improved data transparency, and guaranteed crude supply, Nigeria could finally reverse its long-standing dependence on imported petrol and fully leverage its domestic refining capacity.
