The bank Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has raised concerns that Nigeria might encounter a gas supply crisis by 2030. During an ongoing energy conference in Lagos, NUPRC’s Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, made this announcement.
Komolafe indicated that gas demand is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 16.6% between 2020 and 2030. He warned, “Nigeria could face a significant gas supply crisis with a possible deficit of 3.1 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 in the ‘Base Case Demand and Supply’ scenario.”
In his keynote address at the conference titled ‘Gas as Energy Transition Fuel: Navigating Nigeria’s Trilemma of Finance, Energy Security, and International Politics,’ Komolafe emphasized the growing awareness of the need to address climate change in the post-Paris Agreement era.
He pointed out that numerous countries and organizations are setting carbon neutrality goals, contributing to a worldwide transition toward a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system. This shift has led to a decrease in investments in oil and gas, as stakeholders face increasing pressure from various sectors.
He stressed that the plans for energy transition must align with NUPRC’s national approach to a “just transition.” He articulated, “The focus for Nigeria and other resource-rich developing nations is that the changing energy landscape must consider geographical, historical, and political contexts, alongside the need for energy justice, inclusivity, equity, and sustainability.”
Komolafe noted that Nigeria, traditionally reliant on oil and gas exploitation for its economic stability, must reassess its strategies to ensure a prosperous energy future while achieving global climate objectives.
“The vision we have for the petroleum sector should guarantee the effective use of Nigeria’s abundant natural hydrocarbon resources for collective prosperity, energy access, affordability, sustainability, security, and energy sovereignty—essential components of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan,” he stated.
He further reminded attendees that the government has designated natural gas as the immediate transition fuel due to its cleaner profile compared to oil and coal. Natural gas emits significantly lower greenhouse gases while still providing the reliability required to power both industries and households.
