A purported leaked intelligence report has raised concerns over an increasingly volatile security situation in northern Ethiopia, alleging that political coordination, military mobilisation, clandestine activities and information campaigns are converging in ways that could further destabilise the region.
The report, whose authenticity has not been independently verified, claims that instability is being deliberately exploited as part of a broader strategy to influence public perception, shape narratives surrounding acts of violence and weaken confidence in Ethiopia’s Federal Government.
According to the document, violence is allegedly being integrated into a wider information campaign in which controlling public narratives is considered as strategically important as military operations. The report suggests that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its alleged allies are positioning themselves politically ahead of any potential escalation in the conflict.
The document further claims that senior officials of the TPLF and Eritrea’s ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) held a meeting in the border town of Zalambessa on August 3, 2026. It describes the meeting as evidence of continued political engagement between the two sides despite longstanding regional tensions.
According to the report, contacts between the TPLF and Eritrean officials have allegedly continued over the past two years outside formal government channels, raising concerns over their potential impact on the security landscape in northern Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.
The report identifies several senior TPLF figures who were allegedly involved in the discussions and claims that participants explored strategies aimed at rebuilding political influence, increasing public opposition to the Federal Government and encouraging widespread resistance against federal authorities.
Among its most serious allegations, the document claims that discussions included plans for coordinated attacks targeting economic and industrial facilities in the Tigray region. It also alleges that public spaces such as markets, transport hubs, hospitals, churches, mosques and other civilian locations were considered as potential targets, with the intention of attributing any attacks to the Ethiopian Federal Government.
If carried out, the report alleges such operations would constitute false-flag attacks designed to influence public opinion, fuel political unrest and undermine confidence in federal institutions. However, no independent evidence has been presented to substantiate these claims.
The document also alleges that parallel information campaigns were being planned through social media platforms and online networks to spread messages accusing the Federal Government of deliberately targeting civilians in the event of renewed violence.
It further claims that discussions referenced the possibility of recreating circumstances comparable to the 1988 Hawzen airstrike, a historically significant event for many in Tigray. According to the report, invoking such historical memories could be used to mobilise public sentiment and shape perceptions of responsibility in any future conflict.
The report also alleges that military preparations are underway in several areas across northern Ethiopia, including troop deployments, fortification of defensive positions and the movement of heavy military equipment in locations such as Raya Bala, Waja Tumuga, Chercher, Korem and surrounding areas.
According to the document, communication restrictions have reportedly been imposed on some deployed personnel as part of operational security measures commonly used before military operations.
The report further refers to alleged mobilisation involving TPLF-affiliated fighters based in neighbouring Sudan, claiming that cross-border elements could further complicate the evolving security situation.
Meanwhile, the report states that fears of renewed conflict are already affecting civilians, with reports of reduced public transportation between Alamata, Kobo, Korem and Mehoni, as well as the movement of some residents to what they perceive as safer locations. It suggests these developments may indicate growing humanitarian concerns if tensions continue to escalate.
Overall, the purported intelligence assessment describes a highly fragile security environment characterised by alleged political coordination, military preparations, information campaigns and increasing public anxiety. It argues that the Ethiopian Federal Government faces the dual challenge of addressing security concerns while maintaining public confidence, protecting civilians and preserving constitutional order.
The report concludes that preventing further escalation will require a combination of security preparedness, effective public communication and sustained diplomatic engagement, while stressing that the information contained in the document remains subject to verification.
