Former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has warned that the All Progressives Congress (APC) risks losing the 2027 general elections if it relies solely on political defections and elite structures without addressing its performance and public image.
Speaking on Politics Today on Channels Television on Tuesday, Baba-Ahmed said defections from opposition parties do not automatically guarantee electoral success. He stressed that the ruling party must reconnect with ordinary Nigerians and prioritise credible elections.
In recent months, several governors including Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), and Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers) have defected to the APC, along with other prominent politicians. While many cited political realignments as their reasons, critics argue that the defections are largely motivated by re-election ambitions.
Baba-Ahmed cautioned that the APC’s belief that defections alone can secure victory is misguided. “Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election. They think having all the governors, legislators, and money will automatically return them to power. But they still have to face the people,” he said.
He recalled the 2015 general elections, noting that former President Muhammadu Buhari’s victory was driven by genuine popular support rather than elite political structures. According to him, the APC’s growing unpopularity among ordinary Nigerians poses a serious risk. “The APC is presently very unpopular. It is a party of the elite and officeholders. If they believe money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken. Citizens can reach a breaking point and reject such assumptions,” he warned.
Baba-Ahmed identified two critical tasks for the party ahead of 2027. First, the APC must improve public perception of its performance, which he described as poor and lacking grassroots support. Second, it must ensure free, fair, and credible elections, warning that any attempt to manipulate the process could backfire and undermine legitimacy.
He also noted that many defecting governors are grappling with serious challenges in their states, making it dangerous to assume their move to the APC guarantees electoral success. “Complacency and arrogance are the two main risks. They have not performed well, and now they wear a different jersey, thinking they can win. That mindset is already contributing to setbacks,” he concluded.
