As West Africa grapples with a resurgence of military takeovers, Nigeria faces critical questions about its own democratic stability. Following a recent failed coup attempt in neighboring Benin Republic that required Nigerian military intervention, experts are calling for comprehensive reforms to address the underlying conditions that fuel political instability across the region.
The West African region has experienced significant democratic backsliding since 2020, with successful military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, and most recently an attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau. In early December 2025, Nigerian forces intervened in Benin after mutinous soldiers attempted to overthrow President Patrice Talon’s government, marking Nigeria’s first major foreign military intervention in nearly a decade.
The intervention, which involved Nigerian fighter jets and ground troops, successfully helped Benin’s government thwart the coup attempt. However, the incident has raised urgent questions about Nigeria’s own vulnerability to similar threats.
Senior Advocate of Nigeria Femi Falana has issued a stark warning that Nigeria cannot effectively lead regional anti-coup efforts without first addressing its own internal challenges. Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Tuesday, Falana outlined several critical areas requiring immediate attention.
Falana was emphatic about the prerequisites for stability: “If we want to have political stability in Nigeria, you must address the crisis of the economy, address poverty, tackle illiteracy, and curb insecurity of lives and property.”
The legal expert issued a strong warning about Nigeria’s shrinking democratic space: “You must show that the political space will not shrink as it is now. You have a shrinking of the political space, and that must stop. There must be freedom of expression.”
He condemned the criminalization of dissent, stating: “You cannot be charging people with all manner of offences for expressing their views about the affairs of their country.”
Falana criticized the Independent National Electoral Commission for restricting political participation: “More importantly, INEC must open the political space and allow ideological political parties to be registered to challenge the status quo. Right now, INEC is not prepared to open the political space.”
When asked if more coups should be expected, Falana was blunt: “It won’t be the last. I’m familiar with the political terrain. Once you put opposition leaders in jail, send them into exile, or kill them, you cannot have political stability.”
He emphasized Nigeria’s responsibility: “Nigeria clearly has its job cut out. If you want to stop coups, you must allow political pluralism in Nigeria. You cannot have a situation where the country is moving towards a one-party state, and you want to export democracy. Nigeria has to put its house in order to align with political pluralism.”
Address Root Causes of Instability:
- Economic Reform: Implement policies to reduce poverty and create economic opportunities
- Security Improvements: Tackle the ongoing insecurity in northern and other regions
- Education Investment: Combat illiteracy and improve access to quality education
- Infrastructure Development: Address basic service delivery challenges
Strengthen Democratic Institutions:
- Electoral Integrity: Ensure INEC operates independently and facilitates free, fair elections
- Political Pluralism: Register diverse political parties representing different ideologies
- Judicial Independence: Maintain separation of powers and court autonomy
- Anti-Corruption Measures: Hold leaders accountable through transparent governance
Protect Civil Liberties:
- Freedom of Expression: End prosecution of citizens for political criticism
- Press Freedom: Allow media to operate without intimidation
- Civil Society Space: Enable NGOs and activist groups to function freely
- Peaceful Assembly: Respect citizens’ rights to protest and organize
Promote Inclusive Governance:
- Opposition Engagement: Work constructively with opposition parties rather than marginalizing them
- Public Participation: Create mechanisms for citizen input in policy-making
- Regional Balance: Ensure fair representation across Nigeria’s diverse regions
- Youth Inclusion: Provide meaningful opportunities for young people in politics
Recent developments have highlighted the importance of maintaining military discipline and preventing politicization of the armed forces. In October 2025, President Tinubu replaced top security officials following rumors of a coup plot, with new chiefs tasked with improving professionalism, vigilance and comradeship within the ranks.
One of the most troubling aspects of Nigeria’s democratic regression is the government’s hostile stance toward peaceful protests. The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria guarantees citizens the right to peaceful assembly and protest, yet this fundamental right has been systematically undermined.
The current administration has demonstrated total disdain for peaceful protests, consistently dismissing legitimate civic action by claiming that “hoodlums want to hijack it.” This argument is not only unconstitutional but also represents a dangerous abdication of governmental responsibility.
The government’s logic is fundamentally flawed. If we follow the reasoning that protests should be banned because criminal elements might infiltrate them, then we should also ban:
- Driving on roads because accidents might occur
- Operating businesses because armed robbers might strike
- Holding religious gatherings because they could be attacked
- Going to markets because pickpockets operate there
We do not stop traveling because of the risk of car accidents; instead, we follow safety rules and traffic regulations. Similarly, the existence of potential troublemakers is not a reason to ban protests but rather a reason for police to do their job: protect peaceful protesters while arresting those who break the law.
Peaceful protest is normal democratic business, not a privilege to be granted or denied at the government’s whim. The police should facilitate and protect peaceful assemblies, not work against them. Their role is to:
- Protect protesters from harm and intimidation
- Maintain order by removing troublemakers, not dispersing peaceful gatherings
- Arrest criminals who attempt to hijack protests, not the protesters themselves
- Facilitate traffic around protest routes, not block legitimate demonstrations
Nigeria must return to constitutional governance where:
- Peaceful protests are treated as legitimate civic engagement
- Police serve as protectors of protesters, not government enforcers against them
- The right to dissent is respected as fundamental to democracy
- Citizens can express grievances without fear of arrest or violence
Suppressing peaceful protests while claiming to defend democracy is hypocritical and dangerous. It fuels the very instability that military plotters exploit to justify their interventions.
The Economic Community of West African States has established protocols for democratic governance, though their enforcement has been inconsistent. Key ECOWAS principles include:
- Zero Tolerance for Unconstitutional Changes: Regional sanctions for military takeovers
- Democratic Standards: Requirements for free elections, term limits, and political freedoms
- Security Sector Reform: Professional, accountable military and police forces
- Poverty Alleviation: Economic development as foundation for stability
- Civil Society Engagement: Active participation of citizens in governance
However, ECOWAS has faced criticism for inconsistent enforcement of democratic norms, with observers noting that pervasive economic stagnation and democratic backsliding without intervention by ECOWAS meant that the bloc gradually lost its moral authority.
Analysis of recent coups in West Africa reveals common patterns:
- Economic Grievances: Rising poverty and unemployment fuel public discontent
- Security Failures: Inability to protect citizens from violence and terrorism
- Corruption: Widespread perception of elite enrichment while masses suffer
- Democratic Deficits: Manipulated elections, suppressed opposition, extended terms
- Youth Frustration: Large young populations with limited opportunities
- Suppression of Dissent: Criminalizing peaceful protests and stifling criticism
Analyst Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim noted that coups have been partly driven by governments rejecting their democratic responsibilities, particularly where rulers attempt to circumvent constitutional term limits or suppress legitimate opposition.
For Nigeria to maintain democratic stability and effectively lead regional efforts against coups, comprehensive action is required across multiple fronts. The country must:
Immediately:
- End arbitrary arrests of political critics and opposition figures
- Respect and protect the constitutional right to peaceful protest
- Ensure police facilitate rather than suppress legitimate demonstrations
- Ensure transparent, credible electoral processes
- Address urgent security challenges particularly in conflict zones
- Open dialogue channels with civil society and opposition groups
Medium-term:
- Implement economic reforms to reduce poverty and create jobs
- Strengthen anti-corruption institutions and prosecute high-level graft
- Reform security forces to be more professional and accountable
- Expand political space for diverse parties and ideologies
- Restore constitutional governance and respect for fundamental rights
Long-term:
- Build resilient democratic institutions resistant to authoritarian backsliding
- Develop inclusive economic systems benefiting all regions and groups
- Invest in education and human capital development
- Foster political culture valuing pluralism over winner-take-all competition
Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. As the region’s most populous nation and largest economy, its democratic success or failure will significantly impact West African stability. The recent intervention in Benin demonstrates Nigeria’s military capacity to defend democracy externally, but true leadership requires demonstrating democratic resilience internally.
As Falana concluded: “Nigeria has to put its house in order” if it wants to “show leadership in stabilising the region.” This means confronting uncomfortable truths about governance failures, economic inequalities, and political restrictions that create the conditions for instability.
The government must recognize that peaceful protest is not a threat to stability but rather a safety valve that prevents the build-up of pressures that lead to violent upheaval. When citizens can peacefully express grievances and see them addressed through democratic processes, they have less reason to support unconstitutional changes in government.
The path forward is clear but challenging: address poverty, ensure security, protect freedoms including the right to protest, and foster genuine political competition. Only by tackling these root causes and respecting constitutional governance can Nigeria secure its own democratic future and provide a credible model for the region.
To prevent coups, Nigeria must become the democracy it claims to be, not just in name but in practice. This means allowing citizens to exercise their constitutional rights without intimidation, maintaining space for opposition voices, and ensuring that the police protect rather than suppress peaceful civic engagement.
This analysis draws on expert commentary from Senior Advocate Femi Falana, recent regional developments, and constitutional principles that underpin democratic governance in Nigeria and West Africa.
