Nigeria’s power-generating companies (GenCos) have lost about ₦2.31 trillion over the past twelve years due to electricity that could not be transmitted or utilised as a result of persistent grid and operational constraints, according to data from the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC). The losses, covering 2013 to September 2025, represent the cumulative value of stranded power, electricity generated but not evacuated or distributed to end users.
Data sourced from the National Control Centre and presented by APGC Managing Director, Joy Ogaji, at the association’s 20th anniversary, revealed that despite having the capacity to generate between 6,000MW and 7,000MW, the national grid consistently evacuates only around 4,500MW. This gap has resulted in billions of naira in lost capacity payments annually, underscoring the inefficiencies crippling the electricity market since the sector’s privatisation in 2013.
Between January and September 2025, stranded generation averaged 2,222MW, leading to an estimated ₦119 billion in capacity payment losses within nine months. The highest losses were recorded in August (₦20.17bn), followed by September (₦16.86bn) and July (₦15.77bn), while February saw the least at ₦8.34bn. Cumulatively, the power sector has forfeited more than ₦2.3 trillion since 2013,funds that could have financed new substations or gas plants.
Historically, stranded generation peaked in 2016, when over 3,827MW (54.38 per cent of capacity) was unutilised, resulting in ₦273.32bn in losses. The situation slightly improved from 2021, with stranded power falling to 2,248MW (₦159.85bn) and further to 1,816MW (₦132.19bn) in 2022. However, by 2023 and 2024, stranded capacity climbed again to 2,226MW and 2,180MW, costing the sector ₦162bn and ₦154bn, respectively.
Ogaji explained that the GenCos are owed payments only for the energy supplied, not for idle capacity. She said the non-payment of capacity charges undermines the financial viability of power producers, as these payments are crucial for plant maintenance and loan servicing. “Without a sustainable payment mechanism, it will be impossible to finance major maintenance or expand supply,” she warned, adding that irregular payments discourage foreign investment and threaten the reliability of existing plants.
The power sector’s troubles, she noted, worsened after the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) became the market operator. Initially, GenCos received regular capacity payments under the Performance Agreement signed with the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) during privatisation. However, the introduction of NBET led to irregular settlements and mounting debts.
Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, recently lamented that over 10,000MW of installed capacity remains stranded nationwide despite widespread power shortages. He attributed the crisis not to generation shortfalls but to poor transmission and distribution infrastructure. “We have energy installed all over the country that we are not using,” he said, describing the situation as wasteful.
The APGC warned that the continued losses are dragging down Nigeria’s economic growth. A 1% increase in power supply, it said, could raise the GDP by up to 3.94%. If even half of the stranded capacity had been harnessed, Nigeria’s GDP could have grown by an additional 10–12% in the last decade.
To curb the losses, the association urged the Federal Government to honour all contractual obligations, improve grid infrastructure, ensure full payment of GenCos’ invoices, and promote investment in gas and transmission networks. It also recommended bilateral contracts, off-grid solutions, and targeted grid upgrades to improve power evacuation and supply reliability.
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