Governors Seyi Makinde and Alex Otti occupy similar positions in the political calculations ahead of the 2027 presidential election. As leaders of two political parties, both have emerged as consequential players, although their political strategies and ambitions appear to differ significantly.
For Makinde, the key question is whether his presidential ambition is aimed at winning the 2027 election or positioning himself to influence the emergence of his preferred successor and the distribution of votes in Oyo State.
Otti, meanwhile, recently publicly rejected the claim by Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma that all five South-East governors had agreed to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election.
However, questions remain over whether Otti’s leadership of the Labour Party (LP), following Peter Obi’s departure from the party for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), gives him room to negotiate with whichever candidate emerges as the likely winner of the 2027 presidential election while protecting his own second-term ambitions in Abia State.
While Makinde combines his leadership role with a personal presidential aspiration, Otti is primarily focused on securing a second term as governor. Both, however, are expected to wield considerable influence over the distribution of presidential votes in their respective states.
Despite criticisms from their opponents, the two governors have demonstrated considerable political influence, particularly because of their visible impact in the South-West and South-East geopolitical zones. These regions are also politically significant because President Tinubu and NDC presidential candidate Peter Obi come from the two zones respectively.
Makinde’s presidential ambition, however, has been viewed by some supporters of President Tinubu as an attempt to divide the president’s support base in the South-West. His emergence on the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) platform has therefore generated speculation about whether he is genuinely seeking the presidency or playing a spoiler role in the 2027 contest.
The historical significance of Ibadan and the South-West in Nigeria’s political development provides some context for understanding Makinde’s political calculations.
During the colonial era, Yoruba leaders strongly advocated the merger of the Lagos Colony with the Western Region. They believed the move would create a stronger economic bloc, particularly because of the relationship between Lagos’ maritime economy and the Western Region’s cocoa-driven economy.
Leaders of the Action Group (AG) also recognised that a stronger regional economy would strengthen their development agenda and their ability to resist colonial interference. Their advocacy eventually contributed to the incorporation of the proposal into the 1951 Macpherson Constitution.
That historical background was central to Makinde’s remarks when he announced his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election at the historic Mapo Hall in Ibadan.
While announcing the merger of his faction of the embattled Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with the APM, Makinde described Ibadan as a city of warriors and emphasised its significant role in Nigeria’s political history.
He declared his intention to seek the presidency, stressing that democracy thrives on political choices and insisting that Nigeria should not become a one-party state.
However, former Ogun State governor Olusegun Osoba has dismissed Makinde’s presidential ambition as part of a broader strategy to weaken President Tinubu in the South-West.
Speaking to APC supporters in Ogun State ahead of the Ekiti State governorship election, Osoba urged the party against complacency, arguing that the emergence of multiple presidential candidates from the South could divide votes and reduce Tinubu’s electoral strength in the region.
Osoba said Makinde, Peter Obi and other potential presidential contenders represented significant challenges to Tinubu’s re-election bid.
“Many people are saying that we have no opponents, but that is a misleading narrative. The enemies are many,” Osoba said, alleging that efforts were underway to produce several presidential candidates from the South in order to divide the region’s votes.
Makinde has, however, rejected the suggestion that his presidential ambition is designed to undermine Tinubu. He argued that Nigeria is at a critical point in its democratic development and requires visionary, courageous and competent leadership capable of providing practical solutions to the country’s challenges.
As part of his argument for the presidency, Makinde has also presented himself as a candidate capable of continuing the tradition of Southern leadership for another four years.
In Abia State, Otti’s political strategy appears more focused on balancing his relationship with the Federal Government with his need to maintain support among voters in the South-East ahead of his re-election bid.
Otti has argued that since both he and President Tinubu are seeking second terms, there is no reason for him to oppose the president’s re-election outright.
However, APC leaders in Abia have accused the governor of attempting to maintain a delicate political balance by avoiding a formal defection to the APC while simultaneously creating an impression of cooperation with the president.
Supporters of the ruling party, including Senator Orji Uzor Kalu and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu, have also accused Otti of sustaining the political dynamics that helped propel the Labour Party and Peter Obi to prominence in the South-East during the 2023 presidential election.
Some APC supporters have pointed to the emergence of Dr Chibuzo Okereke, a lecturer in Public Policy and Administration at MIVA Open University, as the Labour Party’s presidential candidate. They argue that Otti could use the LP’s presidential candidacy to reduce Peter Obi’s support in Abia and other South-East states without directly confronting the Federal Government.
A Labour Party candidate in Abia, who spoke privately with The Guardian, said Otti was attempting to maintain a difficult balance between his political obligations and the expectations of his supporters.
“We are walking a tightrope; our leader, Governor Alex Chioma Otti, does not want to be seen as being for Tinubu, because that could anger our people to vote en masse for NDC candidates,” the source said.
The source added that Otti was also trying to avoid creating unnecessary tension with the Federal Government ahead of his governorship re-election campaign.
Otti’s decision to publicly reject Uzodimma’s claim that all South-East governors had endorsed Tinubu was widely seen as part of this balancing strategy.
Uzodimma, who chairs the South-East Governors’ Forum, had announced that the governors had resolved to support Tinubu’s re-election, citing what he described as the president’s development efforts in the region.
Otti subsequently rejected the claim during his monthly media programme, maintaining that Uzodimma could only speak for himself and could not make a decision on behalf of all governors in the zone.
He said the choice of president in 2027 ultimately belonged to Nigerians and that the Labour Party would present its own candidates.
“I am not opposed to President Tinubu running for a second term; every eligible citizen has a constitutional right to contest. When the time comes, Nigerians will decide who will be elected President in 2027,” Otti said.
Despite Otti’s clarification, some stakeholders in the South-East have accused him of indirectly supporting the APC’s political interests by helping to fragment Peter Obi’s potential support base in the region.
Professors Elochukwu Amucheazi and Jerry Nwokolo, President and Secretary of the Igbo Leaders of Thought (ILT), criticised what they described as excessive praise of the Federal Government by political leaders from the South-East.
The group argued that governors should focus on delivering democratic dividends to their people rather than attributing every development project in their states to the Federal Government.
They also criticised what they described as attempts to weaken opposition politics, warning that such actions could undermine Nigeria’s democratic culture.
Ultimately, the political calculations surrounding Makinde and Otti reflect the complexity of the 2027 presidential contest. While Makinde is seeking to establish himself as a national presidential contender, Otti appears more focused on protecting his political base and securing a second term.
Their positions could nevertheless prove significant in determining how presidential votes are distributed across the South-West and South-East, making both governors important players in the unfolding 2027 political contest.
